Join date: Oct 27, 2021

The Urea market is set to experience a soft balance in the short term, moving to potential growing surpluses in the long term (until 2021–2022). Surplus situation is expected to persist during the next five years, reaching 8 percent of the potential supply availability. The balance in the short term is resulting from China’s contraction in capacity and decline in export share, owing to “zero growth” policy in place for fertilizer demand, which largely impacts urea, since China has always been the dominant demand center (35 percent of the global demand); however, recent developments of poor economies of scale (high input coal costs) and tax reform (13 percent VAT on fertilizer) are keeping the global urea market in balance.